Donald Trump makes it clear every day that that he doesn\u2019t fear losing anything during the upcoming midterm elections, either because there will be no midterms or, if there are, he will rig them so tightly that Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress.<\/p>\n
He told his followers during his presidential campaign that if they will vote for him they may never have to vote again, and he plainly meant it. He\u2019s sort-of backed off on that, but he is openly doing everything he can to rig November\u2019s midterm elections, and every election after that, so that he wins.<\/p>\n
But not to worry. It ain\u2019t gonna happen. None of it.<\/p>\n
Under a headline that read, \u201cTrump Can\u2019t Steal the Midterms: The case for being vigilant without panicking\u201d (The Bulwark newsletter, Feb. 17), Nicholas Grossman explains why none of Trump\u2019s stated attempts to kill or rig the midterms can work. He took Trump\u2019s actions\/threats one at a time and explained, in great detail and with deep background, why each is doomed to fail. What follows is mostly my brief condensation of Nicholas\u2019 points, but if you\u2019d like to read the entire newsletter, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Nationalize the elections:<\/strong> Trump has said he wants to \u201cnationalize\u201d the elections and put Republicans in control of running them.<\/p>\n But elections are administered at the state and county levels and, as Grossman writes, \u201cNo matter how much Team Trump disregards norms and laws, there\u2019s no mechanism for taking over state elections, reversing losses, or preventing newly elected members of Congress from sitting, especially if Republicans lose by substantial margins.\u201d<\/p>\n So the midterms will happen, they will be handled at the state and county levels as always, and every indication is that Democrats will win by a landslide. Reasons for that optimism: numerous Republicans aren\u2019t running for re-election; anti-Trump protests have been huge across the nation, and all indications are that the protests will turn into votes; the president\u2019s party almost always loses seats in the midterms, especially when the president\u2019s approval rating is as low as Trump\u2019s is; Democrats have won every election since Trump took office, often by big margins; Trump\u2019s party consistently underperforms when he isn\u2019t on the ballot, as many of the lower-propensity voters who powered him to victory don\u2019t show up; and all the polls agree. Trump and company are going down.<\/p>\n Gerrymander the states:<\/strong> Trump persuaded Texas to redistrict in such a way that it could give Republicans five more seats in the House, but then California did the same to provide five Democrats, thus neutralizing the Texas gains. So then Trump pushed other red states to follow Texas\u2019 lead. Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio did so, and Florida is in court to get the opportunity.<\/p>\n However, other red states declined, such as Indiana, where the Republican-led state senate voted down an aggressive gerrymander despite Trump\u2019s urging. Meanwhile, blue states started following California\u2019s lead, so there is reason to believe that all this partisan gerrymandering will turn out to be a wash. Even if Republicans max out their gains they could only net up to four new seats, which could be overwhelmed by big voting margins. A blue wave that swings the House by anything close to 40 seats \u2013 Democrats gained 41 seats during the midterms in Trump\u2019s first reign — and puts the Senate in play would be impossible to stop.<\/p>\n Station ICE agents at polling places:<\/strong> Trump has threatened to send ICE agents to polling places. The idea is that ICE agents stalking around polling places, especially in areas with large nonwhite populations, would strike fear in the hearts of many people, especially Brown people, and keep them from voting.<\/p>\n That is a plausible possibility, but doing it would most likely backfire in Trump\u2019s face. For one thing, the agents would have to deal with angry, camera-wielding U.S. citizens everywhere they went \u2013 think Minnesota. For another, there are not nearly enough ICE agents in existence to cover enough polling places to make a difference. And, thirdly, they could cause a voting backlash and thus defeat their own efforts.<\/p>\n
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